R. Burt Prater, MD

“Avian Flu”….the coming “Pandemic”.  Remember those terms?  Seems like a bad dream that drifts into a fog of forgetfulness with time.  It has been almost exactly a year since my last pandemic newsletter and little has changed.  Both the continuing potential for the Avian Flu to be the villain that induces the next pandemic and the dismal lack of personal and community preparedness. One expert on the matter said, “The Pandemic clock is ticking, we just don’t know what time it is”. 

R. Burt Prater, MD
Number 7 – February 12, 2007

BACKGROUND AND CURRENT STATUS

The year 2007 marks the 10th anniversary of the emergence of the H5N1 avian influenza virus.  First appearing in Hong Kong in 1997 it virtually disappeared from the scene until 2003 when it resurfaced in Vietnam.    From 2003 through 2005 it spread slowly across much of Asia with most of the activity in China and Indonesia.  In the first quarter of 2006 it exploded from 10 countries to 36.  It is now in 50 countries, and has infected countless millions of domestic fowl, along with 271 humans of which 165 have died.  The mortality or “kill rate” for humans is over 60% (our “seasonal flu has a kill rate of less than 1%).  Much like the H1N1 human virus that resulted in the deadly 1918 Pandemic, no one on this planet has had previous exposure and consequently no one has any immunity to the H5N1 virus.  No where in recorded history do we find a virus capable of swiftly killing 6 out of 10 of its human victims.  Fortunately, to date the avian virus that has resulted in such devastation has not accomplished efficient human to human (h2h) transmission to become a human virus necessary to initiate a world-wide pandemic.  There has been limited h2h transmission but most human cases have been the result of close communion with infected chickens.